Zero carbon freight moves closer with digital modelling

With global warming accelerating at record rates, the goal of zero carbon freight becomes ever more urgent. In Scotland, our researchers are working on this with Transport Scotland, Scotland’s national transport agency.

The agency’s Zero Emission Truck Taskforce was set up to overcome barriers to the transition of Scotland’s heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) to zero-emission technology. And as part of this, the taskforce commissioned our Centre for Sustainable Road Freight at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, to identify where charging infrastructure is needed across Scotland for battery electric heavy goods vehicles (BEVs).

To do this, we’ve been using a state-of-the-art approach that combines data from real-world HGV routes and infrastructure with sophisticated computer simulations. This approach allows us to map in detail where future zero carbon charging and fuelling infrastructure is most urgently needed on Scotland’s road network.

The research is now in its third phase and is delivering valuable data to answer this question. To date, we have analysed real-world data from 80,000 truck journeys in Scotland, covering a mix of freight including retail, food, and general logistics.

This identified ‘hot spot’ locations for electric truck charging points along critical corridors for freight in Scotland. These include the A9 between Stirling and Inverness, the A90 between Perth and Aberdeen and the M74 between Glasgow and Carlisle.

Our research showed key locations for charging points along these routes include Dalwhinnie in the Scottish Highlands, Ballinluig in Perth and Kinross, Stracathro in Angus, Abington in South Lanarkshire and Annandale Water in Dumfries and Galloway.

We also recommended that charging points should be positioned at existing locations like truck stops, lorry parks, ports and transport hubs like container storage terminals. Land in or next to these charger locations, for example ports, would also be needed to instal rapid chargers and provide space for HGVs to park and charge.

Electrical substations – which regulate the distribution of electricity – would likely need to be upgraded in a number of areas to cope with increased vehicle charging, including at peak periods.

The power of ‘agent-based modelling’ 

The technology underpinning this research is critical and is called agent-based modelling. This is a computer simulation technique that models how individual agents – people or things – interact with each other and their environment.

In our study, electric HGVs are the agents and their environment is a digital network of existing diesel truck routes. These combine charging locations that already exist, with new potential charging stations that could be built.

We then create a simulation to investigate how electric trucks would complete each route, starting from when the truck leaves a depot and finishing when it arrives back at a depot run by the same company.

Using this approach, we identified that Scotland’s HGV fleet needs at least 63 charging points along major freight routes. Twenty-three of these are already built or under development – meaning 40 additional sites are still needed.

We also estimated that powering this new infrastructure would require at least 1.4 terawatt-hours of extra electrical power annually. This is equivalent to powering around 300,000 UK homes for a year.

Decarbonising transport with digital twins 

The electricity demand that would be created by decarbonised transport – including zero carbon freight – is a big focus of our research across the UK.

Alongside our work at the Centre for Sustainable Road Freight is the national UK research hub, TransiT, which is a collaboration of eight universities and almost 70 industry partners across the UK.

TransiT’s mission is to use digital twins to rapidly decarbonise transport in the UK, including road, rail, air and maritime, across both passenger and freight.

Digital twins are digital replicas of the physical world that can help us understand how to decarbonise transport much faster, more affordably and with less risk than real-world trials.

Freight across the UK’s road, rail, maritime and aviation sectors is a central focus of this research. In particular, we’re studying how freight moves between these different transport modes, to identify the most practical decarbonisation solutions.

This includes using digital twins to understand how goods are shipped between roads and ports, and from air to road.

By working on the ground with industry operators, including ports, airports and logistics companies, TransiT is identifying decarbonisation challenges and potential solutions.

Demonstrating decarbonisation digitally  

For example, our maritime to road freight demonstrator project is using digital twins to model and test different charging and fuelling scenarios for both ferries and trucks.

This includes exploring the potential of new electricity-powered maritime vessels, and the feasibility of static or overhead charging options for trucks.

In each case, electricity supply and demand is a dominant factor in scenario modelling.

For example, estimates suggest that a fully-electric ferry and cruise ship fleet at our partner port would need an estimated 160 megawatts of electricity at peak times. This is about the equivalent of powering 95,000 medium-sized UK homes, and is many times the port’s existing capacity.

The same or similar challenges are evident across the freight and transport sector – whether it’s an airport, logistics depot or rail hub.

One of TransiT’s other demonstrator projects, our air freight to road deliveries demonstrator, illustrates this.

Working with a UK airport and delivery company, our digital twin is modelling the potential impact on carbon emissions of using a fully electric fleet of delivery trucks; different types of sustainable fuel for both trucks and aircraft – and creating new charging infrastructure.

Our research is at an early stage, but highlights significant decarbonisation challenges. These include securing enough power for charging large fleets and the lower range and payload limitations of electric vans, compared to their diesel equivalents. Changing business models and behaviours to adapt to these new technologies is also a huge task.

For ports and airports alike, there’s also a critical time factor. Globalisation and increasing pressure to reduce lead times means that logistics networks are tightly managed, with minimal slack. For electric fleets, a key challenge is how rapidly vehicles can be charged, and whether those charging points are nearby, or more distant.

Digital twins derisk investment decisions 

Digital twinning is helping us to answer these questions by evaluating the potential of electric vehicles, including their limitations; assessing the feasibility of using sustainable fuels and exploring solutions for power availability and charging infrastructure.

Energy suppliers and operators are also key collaborators in our TransiT hub.

These include the National Energy System Operator (NESO), a new UK public body set up to manage and plan the nation’s electricity and gas networks, while supporting the UK’s transition to net zero energy.

For logistics operators, the practicalities and potential risks of decarbonising their fleets are immense. They include – how do I know which decarbonisation options will work? How much will it cost? And how long until we see a return on that investment?

Digital twins help to remove this risk and uncertainty, by modelling different decarbonisation scenarios much faster than real-world engineering projects, until the lowest cost pathway to net-zero carbon emissions is identified.

Making our digital twin network accessible to transport operators and users to plan their own operations and journeys is a key focus of TransiT’s work. This will include developing a user interface where a food retailer or delivery company, for example, can identify the most sustainable routes, vehicle types, fuels and business models to move their freight.

Policymakers are also critical actors in zero carbon freight, and will benefit from TransiT’s digital twin by being able to see what intended and unintended consequences, across a broad timespan, could result from their policy decisions across a range of future scenarios.

Government support for zero carbon freight 

With time running out to reach transport decarbonisation goals, government support for zero carbon freight is intensifying.

In Scotland, Transport Scotland published the HGV Decarbonisation Pathway for Scotland report around 18 months ago. This recognises that road haulage is a complex sector with multiple pressures, and that transitioning to zero emission HGVs will require additional investment from sectors including energy, finance, government, haulage and manufacturing.

The report identifies four key challenges posed by a move to zero emission trucks, and sets out actions to overcome these. The four challenges are energy infrastructure; financial models; confidence in technological and commercial change – and workforce skills.

Actions to help accelerate road freight decarbonisation include encouraging the development of new leasing and finance models for battery-electric vehicles; better cohesion between electricity suppliers and the road haulage sector; and more data sharing and learning from developing zero emission technologies.

The UK government is also committed to zero carbon freight, and earlier this year revealed plans for 54 new infrastructure hubs to power zero emission lorries. This is part of the Zero Emission HGV and Infrastructure Programme from Innovate UK, the UK’s national innovation agency, and is being funded with up to £200 million from the Department for Transport.

The programme includes the £100 million Electric Freightway project, which Innovate UK says will lay the foundations for the “biggest and most advanced” electric heavy goods vehicle charging network in the world. This will run until 2030 with a fleet of eHGVs on the roads, supported by a new network of charging infrastructure at motorway service areas and commercial depot charging stations.

Other zero freight commitments by the UK government include supporting the development of hydrogen charging hubs that can be shared by a range of transport sectors. As part of this, it announced a £15 million investment last year in Tees Valley hydrogen projects including a hydrogen refuelling station at Teesside International Airport for goods and airport vehicles and the development of a hydrogen-based commercial vehicle.

The key message is that zero carbon freight may be a big ambition for tomorrow. But the roadmap to get there is already happening today. And technology is the critical enabler that’s bringing this future closer.