Electrification at all costs?

Biog in brief: Dr Nicholas Head is XPO Logistics’ Head of Sustainability. He has specialised in the environmental sector over the last two decades, including achieving an MSc and PhD from the University of Northampton, focusing on circular economy and assessing the viability of business models structured around sustainability. (Full biography at end of article.)

Electrification at all costs?

The UK road freight transport sector is currently facing what is probably the largest evolution it has faced since transitioning to diesel powered vehicles over a century ago, and indeed on a scale comparable to those of containerisation and consolidation of logistics operations during the 1960’s and 70’s.

What marks this transition as anything different?

Unlike the effectiveness of adopting containers and the efficiency gains seen with clustering logistics operations, the electrification of trucks lacks key enablers outside of the obvious (high upfront asset costs associated with new tech adoption).

Switching from a high energy density liquid fuel system to an electron-based system poses multiple questions but fundamentally, one stands out: can electrification of trucks match or exceed what current assets can do?

Having driven some of the early variants, trucks can safely pull loads. Indeed, where use cases do not require maxing out on weight and are dropping around urban centres, these trucks can certainly match their diesel counterparts. But charging these high value assets effectively can markedly limit the range of suitable use cases.

Range and load anxiety

Taking the above into consideration, two factors offer serious challenges to widescale operational acceptance. Flexibility in range and payload is critical to running profitably. Even with the rapid advances being seen with electric truck specs, operational range on a single charge is still capped around 600km (375 miles) for newer models, but typically around 350-400km (220-250 miles) currently.

Further, battery packs are 500-800kg (typical 90-100kW packs), with 4-6 packs a typical configuration, meaning a potential weight penalty of 2-3 tonnes (4 packs) to 3-4.8 tonnes when aiming to maximise range (6 packs). Indeed, current news stories about product launches refer to a maximum payload capacity of 21-22 tonnes. This suggests targeting of specific use cases is already guiding product development, despite the agreed 2t derogation available for heavy trucks.

OEM production capacity

On top of this, the UK is starting from 1% eHGV penetration in 2026 (based on the optimistic numbers reported of ~400 units expected on the road), and would need a pathway like this:

· ~5,000 units/year by 2030 (early S-curve growth)

· ~33,000–35,000 units/year by 2036 (rapid scale-up phase)

· 40,000–45,000 units/year by 2040 (full market maturity)

Begging a further question; is this feasible for the UK when the OEM main markets are in the EU?

Charging on the road or at depot – that seems to be the question.

Well, no – not really.

From an operator’s perspective on operational risk, having infrastructure under control is a significant mitigation. In contrast, charging locations at strategic points along the SRN are the antithesis of this risk-control reality. Coupled with concerns over cost (on the road can typically range from 2.5 to 3x the kWh rate operators pay at depot) the appetite to utilise external networks is severely curtailed without a mechanism for recouping some / all of this differential, notwithstanding the additional costs of securing sites and equipment therein (as recently seen with the delay to the launch of the Baldock eHGV charging hub due to cable theft).

In addition, concerns over cost are compounded by the pace of charger development both sides of the ‘fence’. While ZEHID and other funding rounds have allowed the development of a nascent charging network, supported by commercial providers at specific locations, it is reasonable to say that charging infrastructure options for any fleets seeking to prove the viability of operating multiple electric trucks in a networked model will face severe challenges and will certainly struggle to match existing asset capabilities.

Connectivity and power availability in a constrained grid

With the best will in the world, logistics is not the primary sector of concern for National Grid or NESA (trying to organise the various DNOs operating across the UK). For any operators reading this who have applied to DNOs or researched when NG will do upgrade works in a specific location, this reality will be starkly apparent.

High-energy demand industries, domestic users, data-centre developers and so forth are all competing with logistics and distribution for access to power and the grid connection points. Unlike many of these demand side groups, logistics has a specific limiting geographic factor – operations are strategically positioned along the road networks rather than where power is produced / needed (an exacerbated issue with decentralised production from renewables).

It’s all about (zero) emissions? – or is it?

Let’s address this head on – electric trucks are not currently ‘zero emission’ vehicles and on a well-to-wheel basis never will be. Can they get beyond a 90% level of emissions reduction before 2050 in the UK? Almost certainly, yes.

However, the supply chain for battery production is far from decarbonised; indeed, most truck battery production occurs in China, which means visibility into broader supply chain emissions (let alone working conditions and other human rights concerns) is sketchy at best.

UK energy production has gone through a period of rapid decarbonisation (mainly through the adoption of gas as a replacement for coal), but will struggle to reach net zero emissions given that gas will remain in the energy mix well beyond 2050 and renewables have considerable embedded supply chain emissions and are increasingly under the spotlight for their perceived contribution to higher energy costs.

So, what does this mean?

Electric trucks do offer a potential lever towards a lower emission road freight sector, but the early stages of the development cycle are highly unlikely to meet the key policy milestone of zero emission HGVs by 2040 (the lack of any policy support between 3.5t and 26t to date effectively makes the 2035 target moot – said I would come back to this) and is unlikely to move the sector to a 2050 net zero position without a broader decarbonisation approach.

To this, low carbon fuels are widely accepted as offering immediate levers for operators to start the process of decarbonisation. Coupled with ongoing CI and modal shift opportunities as they develop, alongside the efficiency gains from AI adoption at scale, the potential for a broad decarbonisation strategy becomes clearer.

While many of these initiatives currently offer ‘green premiums’ for adoption, these are offset by uncertainties in TCO considerations for electric truck uptake (such as depreciation, residual values, battery supply chain and production limitations, pay-per-mile taxation, etc.).

Indeed, just looking back at the numbers, compared to the 400 electric trucks which will be on the road during 2026, the number of trucks running on alternative fuels now is in the range of 25, 000 to 50,000 vehicles (a 62 to 125x difference in adoption rate), and these are in fleets largely outside of the SME parc.

Electrification at all costs? – not under these operational realities.

Biography continued:

During his PhD studies, Dr Head lectured on his specialisms of circular economy and systems thinking approaches to environmental issues at the University of Northampton and the Open University before moving back into the private sector as a consultant and then for various FMCG companies in Head of Sustainability positions.

Having previously been a member of the CIWM, Dr Head has sat on and contributed to various steering groups over the last five years and has also been an active member of both the Schumacher Institute (looking at societal issues from a systems thinking perspective) and IEMA.

In recent years his focus has been on decarbonisation of transport and logistics, taking on a Board of Advisors role with the Sustainable Business Consortium and leading on the Sustainable Logistics Forum therein. Dr Head is a keen walker in his spare time, particularly with his family and dogs.