The freight divide – hydrogen or electric?

A new survey of road freight companies by Germany’s Öko-Institut shows major shift in sentiment towards battery-electric trucks – and away from fuel-cell vehicles.
It was as recently as 2022 that a survey of German trucking companies found that, as a whole, they viewed hydrogen as the most promising climate-friendly option by the end of the decade.

However, a newly published follow-up study by the same research institute shows that the sector now believes that the future of clean trucking is more likely to be battery-electric than hydrogen-based.

“It is noteworthy that the industry’s assessment of the future relevance of different fuels and drive systems has changed considerably,” notes Germany’s Öko-Institut.

The non-profit institute found that 82% of logistics firms surveyed in 2021 (as published in the 2022 study) believed that fuel-cell trucks would become standard, or at least in partial use by 2030 — compared to 58% believing the same for battery-electric trucks.

But in the new study, only 44% of logistics firms surveyed last summer said the same about hydrogen trucks, compared to 82% of respondents stating a belief that fully electric vehicles would be standard or in partial use by 2030.

A further 18% of respondents in the new study believed that battery-electric trucks would play a niche role by 2030, while 41% believed the same about hydrogen-powered equivalents.

“Overall, it becomes clear: logistics companies see the alternative fuels and drivetrains of the future in battery-electric propulsion,” the report states.

“Around 95% of logistics companies believe that battery-electric drivetrains will be in use in 2030. No other alternative drivetrain or fuel enjoys a remotely comparable expectation for the future.”

So what are the reasons for this change in sentiment?

The study acknowledges that: “Hydrogen trucks offer high potential driving ranges, but the production of climate-neutral hydrogen is energy-intensive and costly. In addition, hydrogen requires high levels of compression or liquefaction, which creates further energy use and infrastructure requirements.

“The limited number of refuelling stations, as well as transport and storage challenges, make large-scale deployment difficult.”

By contrast, the report asserts: “Research has shown that, by 2030, the total cost of ownership of battery-electric trucks is expected to be lower than that of all other drivetrains in many operating profiles.

“The majority of companies [ie, respondents to the survey] have engaged with battery-electric trucks for various reasons. Frequently mentioned reasons are economic considerations, a long-term future orientation of the company, climate and environmental goals, technological interest, requirements from the customer side, as well as political framework conditions and support measures.

“Political initiatives to support electrification are considered decisive. The most frequently mentioned policy measures are the expansion of charging infrastructure as well as the acceleration of related approval procedures. Other policy measures, such as toll exemption, also enjoy strong support.”

However, the researchers did add: “Limitations [of battery-electric trucks] include, in some cases, restricted driving ranges, demanding charging infrastructure, and a higher purchase price compared with diesel vehicles.

“Disadvantages also arise from the energy-intensive production of batteries, which requires raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, as well as from later disposal and recycling challenges.”

A particular issue often cited by hydrogen truck proponents is that getting enough clean electricity to motorway service station to simultaneously charge multiple large truck batteries will be extremely difficult.

“A particularly frequently mentioned obstacle [by respondents] was the [battery] charging infrastructure,” the study points out. “From the perspective of many companies, there is a lack of a nationwide network of high-performance charging points. Especially on frequently used routes, companies consider that suitable charging infrastructure and parking possibilities are lacking.

“Questions are also raised regarding the reliability of the energy supply; for some respondents it remains unclear to what extent the electricity grid could cover the additional demand.”

Logistics UK’s Head of Decarbonisation Lamech Solomon said: “These findings from Germany in many ways mirror what we are hearing from operators across the UK. Businesses are ultimately driven by what is practical, affordable and scalable — and right now battery-electric trucks are making progress on those fronts.

“Improvements in vehicle range, falling total cost of ownership and clearer policy support have given operators greater confidence that electrification can be deployed this decade.

“Having said that, the shift in sentiment doesn’t remove the very real challenges around grid capacity and charging infrastructure, particularly for high-demand motorway locations.

“If governments want to maintain this momentum, they must accelerate infrastructure delivery and provide long-term policy certainty. Hydrogen may still have a role in specific applications, but the immediate priority for industry is making battery-electric logistics work at scale.”

View the full report here.