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Global trade to double in real terms by 2050, official tells air freight industry
An official from the Department for International Trade (DIT) has said that the government expects global trade to double in real terms over the next 30 years and quadruple in dollar terms by $100 trillion a year until 2050.
Speaking at the Exporting by Air Seminar, hosted by Airlines UK and Logistics UK in the City of London last week (27 April 2022), Ian Ascough, Deputy Director at DIT, said that emerging economies are likely to account for a growing share of global trade as economic power shifts ever eastwards.
The seven fastest growing economies are projected to match the G7 in terms of their imports by 2050. While global trade is currently concentrated among high income economies, Ascough said that ten more countries would graduate to this high-income status by 2030. However, the high-value goods produced by the UK would reserve it a seat at the top table of trading nations for the foreseeable future.
“I believe that the UK will remain one of the top ten trading nations in the world over the next 30 years,” Ascough said, “UK exports are particularly well placed to capitalise upon the growth of the global middle class as richer populations buy more of the high-value goods and services that the UK economy specialises in.”
However, the rapid growth in trade means that the UK’s share of world exports is likely to fall from around 3.6% to 2.6% by 2050.
As global trade shifts eastwards, Ascough said the government sees the Indo-Pacific region as vital to its post-Brexit future. As well as negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and Canada, the UK is negotiating a new deep and comprehensive FTA with India, the world’s biggest democracy, which if secured could give the UK a real advantage over its competitors in the US and across Europe.
“Through bringing down barriers on trading goods so that there’s plenty of goods in the air freight sector around the world, through securing ambitious commitments to secure opportunities for transport services, through providing access to companies that provide auxiliary services, through bringing about fair competition in the postal and delivery markets, I’m sure that we can see your sector go from strength to strength,” Ascough told delegates.
Published On: 05/05/2022 16:00:20