Van market dips as EV targets increase

The new light commercial vehicle market fell by 7.8% in January, according to the SMMT, registering 17,562 vehicles.

This marks the weakest start to a year since 2012, when 16,049 vehicles were registered, and reflects a tough economic environment compounded by weak business confidence which is reducing fleet investment.

The decline can be attributed to a slump in pickup demand after a fiscal change impacted the double cab segment and introduced more costs for buyers.

Demand for medium vans fell by 27.4% to 2,547 units and the lower volume small van segment fell by 39.8% to 402 units.

Only large vans and 4x4s posted growth, up 10% to 12,696 units and 33.9% to 711, respectively.

At the same time battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand has risen to a 10.4% share but is much lower than the 24% target for 2026. Demand would have to almost double to meet this mandate, and such growth in a weak market poses a significant challenge.

321,000 units are forecast to be delivered this year – a 1.9% increase compared to 2025 but much weaker than the 335,000 anticipated in the previous October outlook. The BEV outlook, meanwhile, has been revised from 14% to 13%.

Logistics UK’s Head of Decarbonisation Policy Lamech Solomon said: “The logistics sector is committed to decarbonising and operators are demonstrating this through investments in infrastructure, adoption of zero-emission vehicles and use of low carbon fuel.

“Although SMMT’s figures show that the number of new commercial vehicles registered has decreased and the industry is under some strain, it is an encouraging sign that the adoption of BEVs has increased.

“This shows that this widespread industry effort is starting to bear fruit, and with the right policies and support in place from governmnent, operators can further continue to decarbonise their fleets and reduce carbon emissions.”